25 février 2018 0

Yield Spread, technical analysis and € -crash

Rédigé par jp-chevallier dans la rubrique English, Etats-Unis, Europe

The curve representing the difference between the yields of 10-year Notes and those of 2-year Notes reveals in technical analysis in February a very beautiful head on his shoulders with a well-drawn choker, Document 1: A zoom out shows that the fake news from nomenklatura of the euro-zone delay the long and heavy trend of [...]

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24 janvier 2018 13

2018 €-crisis, 2020 US recession!

Rédigé par jp-chevallier dans la rubrique English, Etats-Unis, Europe, Monétarisme

The crisis that began to be visible in statistics in the euro area since 2011 is worsening and a violent crash will occur in 2018. It will cause a recession in the United States in late 2019 and 2020. Several concordant indicators justify these predictions … The evolution of the curve representing the difference between [...]

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29 mai 2017 3

Free money supply and growth

Rédigé par jp-chevallier dans la rubrique English, Etats-Unis, masse monétaire libre

The relationship between changes in the money supply and growth has been a very important subject for a decade. A concrete example from well-known economic theories allows us to understand them… As soon as the Böhm-Bawerk’s peasant sells his harvest on the market in neighboring town, he buys a plow (to increase his production, productivity [...]

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22 novembre 2013 12

Systemically Important Financial Institutions real leverage

Rédigé par jp-chevallier dans la rubrique Banques, English, Leverage

Like all companies, banks finance their assets by equity and liabilities. Alan Grenspan enacted in the 80’s Tier 1 ratio Rule for the banking system: the amount of capital must be greater than 8% of the total debt, its inverse is the leverage to be less than 12.5. After the financial turmoil he increased this [...]

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26 février 2013 9

Systemically Important Financial Institutions real leverage

Rédigé par jp-chevallier dans la rubrique Banques, English

Like all companies, banks finance their assets by equity and debt. Alan Grenspan enacted in the 80s Tier 1 ratio Rule for the banking system: the amount of capital must be greater than 8% of the total debt, its inverse is the leverage to be less than 12.5. After the financial turmoil he increased this [...]

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3 octobre 2012 15

Free money supply and growth

Rédigé par jp-chevallier dans la rubrique English, masse monétaire libre

Changes in real GDP are inversely proportional to those of the free money supply M2-M1 which is the difference between the change in the monetary aggregate M2-M1 and (minus) real GDP growth (year on year %). In other words, the variations of the free money supply are driving: the increase in free money supply M2-M1 [...]

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14 septembre 2011 2

Two banks in the euro area are in default of payment in dollars

Rédigé par jp-chevallier dans la rubrique English

Today Wednesday, September 14, two banks in the euro area are in default of payment in dollars: they ask $575 million, Click here to read this release on ECB website.

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31 août 2011 1

Banks in the euro zone: no more bets!!

Rédigé par jp-chevallier dans la rubrique Banques Européennes, English, Europe

Many banks in the euro zone have a real leverage at 30 to 50! They cannot withstand the large current financial turmoil. August 18, a bank has even been forced to borrow $500 million to the ECB for a period of seven days to avoid being in default according to the ECB. August 25, at [...]

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28 août 2011 3

ECB: no more bets! More, more…

Rédigé par jp-chevallier dans la rubrique Banques Européennes, English

This Tender Operation-Announcement, Reference Number 11034 means that $5m were provided on morning August 25 from ECB to a German bank otherwise this bank was in default, but not allowed, because, finally, this bank found these $5m some hours later. Document 1: Indeed, to avoid this event, she was able to sell some assets in [...]

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27 août 2011 14

ECB: no more bets! More…

Rédigé par jp-chevallier dans la rubrique Banques Européennes, English

The situation is out of control in the euro zone, as I have been writing it for a while… The interbank market does not work because euro-zone banks managers have lost confidence in other banks. So they keep their cash in US$ rather than lending it to other banks that need it as they would [...]

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